DISCLAIMER

NQ E-mini NASDAQ 100 Statistics

Trading Hours (CT)

Regular Trading Hours (RTH): 08:30 - 15:00

Initial Balance Period: First hour of RTH (08:30 - 09:30)

Range Information

IB Range: High/Low during the first hour of trading

RTH Range: High/Low during regular trading hours

FS Range: Full session range (overnight + RTH)

Report generated on: Aug 4, 2025

Range Distribution

Range Volatility Summary

  • 20d Median IB Range is 85% of 3yr median

  • 20d Median RTH Range is 95% of 3yr median

Range Trend Summary

  • IB Range has decreased over prior 20d

  • RTH Range has decreased over prior 20d

20-Day Range Distribution (Jun 6, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

60-Day Range Distribution (Apr 9, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

3-Year Range Distribution (Jul 8, 2022 - Jul 8, 2025)

IB Break & Ext Stats

As filtered by baselines below: P₁₅ < Normal IB Range < P₈₅
Unfiltered
Normal based on:
20-Day60-Day3-Year< P₁₅Normal> P₈₅
15%
13%
20%
36%
20%
6%
+100%
25%
23%
28%
45%
27%
13%
+75%
35%
33%
38%
54%
38%
25%
+50%
50%
48%
51%
63%
52%
38%
+25%
65%
65%
66%
79%
66%
55%
25%
23%
30%
51%
28%
16%
60%
55%
62%
72%
61%
58%
50%
45%
47%
59%
47%
40%
-25%
45%
40%
39%
45%
39%
29%
-50%
30%
32%
29%
33%
30%
19%
-75%
20%
20%
21%
27%
22%
12%
-100%

* Percentages rounded to whole numbers

IB Break Stop Loss Analysis

Based on most recent 3 yr data. IB Range Context was calculated Below/Normal/Above based on rolling 20 trading day window as of date calculation was run for

Extension:
20-Day IB Range Context:

Adverse Excursion Statistics

Analysis based ONLY on days when respective extension target was reached

IBH25 Targets

Statistic Value (% of IB) Description
Count 355 Number of trades that hit target
P15 0.7% 15% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Median 14.3% 50% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Mean 26.6% Average adverse excursion
P85 53.2% 85% of trades had adverse move ≤ this

IBL25 Targets

Statistic Value (% of IB) Description
Count 303 Number of trades that hit target
P15 0.9% 15% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Median 15.4% 50% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Mean 27.5% Average adverse excursion
P85 55.4% 85% of trades had adverse move ≤ this

Trade Profitability Analysis

Analysis includes all respective IBH or IBL breaks, regardless of whether target was reached

IBH25 Breaks Profitability

P15 Stop

Stop %: 0.7%
Avg Stop Distance: 0.99
Avg Points: 2.76
Win Rate: 13.0%
Total Trades: 461

Median Stop

Stop %: 14.3%
Avg Stop Distance: 19.23
Avg Points: 1.50
Win Rate: 39.9%
Total Trades: 461

Mean Stop

Stop %: 26.6%
Avg Stop Distance: 35.67
Avg Points: 3.88
Win Rate: 55.1%
Total Trades: 461

P85 Stop

Stop %: 53.2%
Avg Stop Distance: 71.35
Avg Points: 3.39
Win Rate: 66.4%
Total Trades: 461

IBL25 Breaks Profitability

P15 Stop

Stop %: 0.9%
Avg Stop Distance: 1.33
Avg Points: 3.95
Win Rate: 13.9%
Total Trades: 416

Median Stop

Stop %: 15.4%
Avg Stop Distance: 21.60
Avg Points: 2.57
Win Rate: 38.2%
Total Trades: 416

Mean Stop

Stop %: 27.5%
Avg Stop Distance: 38.71
Avg Points: 1.67
Win Rate: 49.8%
Total Trades: 416

P85 Stop

Stop %: 55.4%
Avg Stop Distance: 77.93
Avg Points: 2.56
Win Rate: 63.7%
Total Trades: 416

How to Use This Analysis:

  • Adverse Excursion: Shows how far price moved against you (as % of IB range) before hitting target
  • Stop Placement: Use P85 for conservative stops, Median for balanced approach. Stops are IB range-adaptive!
  • Stop %: Percentage of IB range used for stop distance (e.g., 40% = stop at 40% of daily IB range)
  • Avg Stop Distance: Average actual stop distance in points based on each day's IB range
  • Profitability: Expected results if you traded every IB break with this adaptive stop strategy
  • Context Filtering: Shows how performance varies with recent IB range behavior

Range History

20-Day Range History (Jun 6, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

60-Day Range History (Apr 9, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

3-Year Range History (Jul 8, 2022 - Jul 8, 2025)