DISCLAIMER

RTY E-mini Russell 2000 Statistics

Trading Hours (CT)

Regular Trading Hours (RTH): 08:30 - 15:00

Initial Balance Period: First hour of RTH (08:30 - 09:30)

Range Information

IB Range: High/Low during the first hour of trading

RTH Range: High/Low during regular trading hours

FS Range: Full session range (overnight + RTH)

Report generated on: Aug 4, 2025

Range Distribution

Range Volatility Summary

  • 20d Median IB Range is 76% of 3yr median

  • 20d Median RTH Range is 90% of 3yr median

Range Trend Summary

  • IB Range continued to decrease and is below long-term average

  • RTH Range continued to decrease and is below long-term average

20-Day Range Distribution (Jun 6, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

60-Day Range Distribution (Apr 9, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

3-Year Range Distribution (Jul 8, 2022 - Jul 8, 2025)

IB Break & Ext Stats

As filtered by baselines below: P₁₅ < Normal IB Range < P₈₅
Unfiltered
Normal based on:
20-Day60-Day3-Year< P₁₅Normal> P₈₅
15%
13%
20%
36%
20%
6%
+100%
25%
23%
28%
45%
27%
13%
+75%
35%
33%
38%
54%
38%
25%
+50%
50%
48%
51%
63%
52%
38%
+25%
65%
65%
66%
79%
66%
55%
25%
23%
30%
51%
28%
16%
60%
55%
62%
72%
61%
58%
50%
45%
47%
59%
47%
40%
-25%
45%
40%
39%
45%
39%
29%
-50%
30%
32%
29%
33%
30%
19%
-75%
20%
20%
21%
27%
22%
12%
-100%

* Percentages rounded to whole numbers

IB Break Stop Loss Analysis

Based on most recent 3 yr data. IB Range Context was calculated Below/Normal/Above based on rolling 20 trading day window as of date calculation was run for

Extension:
20-Day IB Range Context:

Adverse Excursion Statistics

Analysis based ONLY on days when respective extension target was reached

IBH25 Targets

Statistic Value (% of IB) Description
Count 278 Number of trades that hit target
P15 0.8% 15% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Median 11.3% 50% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Mean 20.8% Average adverse excursion
P85 40.0% 85% of trades had adverse move ≤ this

IBL25 Targets

Statistic Value (% of IB) Description
Count 276 Number of trades that hit target
P15 2.1% 15% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Median 13.5% 50% of trades had adverse move ≤ this
Mean 21.5% Average adverse excursion
P85 42.9% 85% of trades had adverse move ≤ this

Trade Profitability Analysis

Analysis includes all respective IBH or IBL breaks, regardless of whether target was reached

IBH25 Breaks Profitability

P15 Stop

Stop %: 0.8%
Avg Stop Distance: 0.16
Avg Points: 0.37
Win Rate: 11.1%
Total Trades: 398

Median Stop

Stop %: 11.3%
Avg Stop Distance: 2.29
Avg Points: 0.28
Win Rate: 35.4%
Total Trades: 398

Mean Stop

Stop %: 20.8%
Avg Stop Distance: 4.23
Avg Points: 0.30
Win Rate: 47.5%
Total Trades: 398

P85 Stop

Stop %: 40.0%
Avg Stop Distance: 8.13
Avg Points: 0.46
Win Rate: 59.8%
Total Trades: 398

IBL25 Breaks Profitability

P15 Stop

Stop %: 2.1%
Avg Stop Distance: 0.43
Avg Points: 0.17
Win Rate: 11.1%
Total Trades: 405

Median Stop

Stop %: 13.5%
Avg Stop Distance: 2.79
Avg Points: 0.14
Win Rate: 34.6%
Total Trades: 405

Mean Stop

Stop %: 21.5%
Avg Stop Distance: 4.45
Avg Points: 0.03
Win Rate: 44.4%
Total Trades: 405

P85 Stop

Stop %: 42.9%
Avg Stop Distance: 8.89
Avg Points: 0.22
Win Rate: 58.3%
Total Trades: 405

How to Use This Analysis:

  • Adverse Excursion: Shows how far price moved against you (as % of IB range) before hitting target
  • Stop Placement: Use P85 for conservative stops, Median for balanced approach. Stops are IB range-adaptive!
  • Stop %: Percentage of IB range used for stop distance (e.g., 40% = stop at 40% of daily IB range)
  • Avg Stop Distance: Average actual stop distance in points based on each day's IB range
  • Profitability: Expected results if you traded every IB break with this adaptive stop strategy
  • Context Filtering: Shows how performance varies with recent IB range behavior

Range History

20-Day Range History (Jun 6, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

60-Day Range History (Apr 9, 2025 - Jul 8, 2025)

3-Year Range History (Jul 8, 2022 - Jul 8, 2025)